| Opinion | Voting travesties excluded, there's little doubt that Obama will win the 2008 US presidential election. – Lee J Haywood, 2008-11-03 at 21:04:44 (6 comments) |
 | On 2008-11-04 at 00:29:20, BorgClown wrote... I hope these times reason prevails, but I have to see to believe that the bulk of USA has changed enough to permit a non-wasp to govern them. |
 | On 2008-11-04 at 11:55:12, Lee J Haywood wrote... There are many reasons why he is expected to win. (1) The economy - disposable income in the US has been stagnated for a long time, so a change of party is expected. (2) The war - 4,000 killed so far in Iraq affects the popular vote. (3) Non-polling models put Obama in the lead on election day. (4) Electronic markets based on shares reflect the vote they think Obama will get, and can beat 7/10 polls - they currently put Obama in the lead. (5) Combining all of the above - http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/ (6) The (outdated) 'Bradley effect', where white voters tell polls that they may/will vote for a black candidate but don't on election day. With Obama, the opposite is at work - in racist states support for McCain is overstated. Also, Obama is the first African-American nominee so there's no historical precedent. (7) Stratospheric 90% support among African Americans, combined with a high youth turnout will swing southern states. (8) The cellphone effect - polls only reach those with landlines. |
| On 2008-11-05 at 05:05:15, BorgClown wrote... Obama won. Yay. I'm going to sleep. |
| On 2008-11-05 at 09:04:44, Lee J Haywood wrote... Heh, I was wondering if I would read about it here first. (-: I'm just going to go check the news... |
| On 2008-11-05 at 23:10:18, BorgClown wrote... Since you're such a well informed guy, I considered unnecessary to post the news item here. I'm kinda saturated of the whole elections hype, let's see how Obama speaks with actions now. |
| On 2008-11-05 at 23:48:41, Lee J Haywood wrote... I watched the final speeches, etc. and the crazy Nader interview, but it's pretty much historical now. We still have to wait a couple of months for the handover to actually take place... |